Welcome to Our Stocktraders-ICQ© Tripod Website.
WARNING – After-hours investing involves unique risks. These risks may include greater price volatility, less liquidity, and wider bid/ask spreads than during regular market hours.
The Week Past
Well, we had the Dow up small last week by finishing +0.6% for the week, the Nasdaq finished the week +5.5%, The Russell 2000 was +0.5%, and the S & P 500 was +1.8%. All traders should pay closer attention to their mental stops or plan on riding out some bumps along the way.
This last week was a small upturn for the Dow and a medium upturn for the Nasdaq. We believe margin is fine to use if you DO NOT margin all your holdings. We feel it would be prudent to have 1/2 of an account on margin at this time.
We believe that a long-term or swing-trader should have 1/2 of their portfolio on margin at this time. A daytrader could have some margin of up to 3/4 of his holdings if you use tight stops. We want short-term traders to have their stops in a tighter range of –10% to -15% We suggest using -30% stops on your long-term positions at this time.
Well, the Dow was down small and the Nasdaq finished the week up a lot.
LU and T still warrant being sold due to management issues. We still feel these two stocks should still be sold even though they both have moved up some in these last two weeks.
The Economic reports coming this week are: on January 25th at 8:30 AM EST the Initial Claims
(Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits. This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the direction of the economy, with increases (decreases) in claims potential signaling slowing (accelerating) job growth. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile, and many analysts therefore track a four-week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. It typically takes a sustained move of at least 30K in claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
There are two other statistics in this report -- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate; neither is watched closely by the market. Some analyst’s track the number of people receiving state benefits from month to month as a guide for job growth, though this series has a poor track record in predicting the monthly employment report. The insured unemployment rate changes little on a weekly basis and is never a factor for the market.)report for jobless claims will be released and at 10:00 AM EST the Existing Home Sales
(The name speaks for itself - this report provides a measure of the level of sales of existing home sales. The report is considered a decent indicator of activity in the housing sector. Housing starts precede this report each month, but starts are a supply rather than demand-side indicator. Existing home sales precede the other key demand-side indicator of housing - new home sales - thus boosting the visibility of this report. Sales are highly dependent on mortgage rates, and will tend to react with a few months lag to changes in rates. Sales are also determined by the level of pent-up demand for housing - immediately after a recession, sales are typically quite strong due to the demand which accumulated through the recession.
The survey sample for existing home sales is larger than that of new home sales, making it somewhat less susceptible to large revisions. Both reports can see huge month-to-month swings in winter, when bad weather can significantly affect sales.
Aside from total sales, two other indicators are worth watching in this report -- the inventory of homes for sale and the median price. The inventory of homes for sale at the current sales pace is the inventory/sales ratio of the housing sector. For example, a 5.0 figure for inventory/sales indicates that the supply of homes for sale would be depleted within five months at the current sales pace. The lower this figure goes, the greater the need for new housing starts. The year/year change in the median price provides a good indication of inflation in home prices.)report will be released; and on January 26th at 8:30 AM EST the Durable Goods Orders
(The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less than perfect indicator. Looking at the breakdown of orders can minimize these problems. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broadbased increases in orders.
Also notable in this report is the narrow category of nondefense capital goods. These goods mirror the GDP category producers' durable equipment (PDE) -- the largest component of business investment. Shipments of nondefense capital goods are a good proxy for PDE in the current quarter, while nondefense capital goods orders provide an indication of PDE growth in the quarters ahead.)report will be released. These reports will rate a C to B on a scale of A-F. Everyone should place close attention to pre-market trading and how the futures are acting each morning before the market opens for trading.
IPOs by M_A_Trader©:
Ipos are now slowly starting to come out as the market goes higher. There will not be many ipos coming to the market so check on them at this web site. Click on Ipo Info is a great site to research ipos.WARNING: IF YOU BUY IPOs AFTER THE STOCK OPENS USE LIMIT ORDERS ONLY.
”A” Portfolio Stock Report by M_A_Trader©
Nortel (NT, TSE)(NT, NYSE) Nortel closed the week at $40.00. We now have a 12-month target on NT of $175 US. News for NT: “ MADRID, Spain--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Jan. 23, 2001--Nortel Networks (NYSE:NT)(TSE:NT.) has installed for Airtel Movil SA in Spain the world's first commercial radio equipment based on the international Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) standard, further demonstrating Nortel Networks leadership position in building the high-performance Wireless Internet. Nortel Networks is the first company to deliver commercial 3G equipment for a public nationwide UMTS network. This time-to-market advantage is positioning Spain to be the first major country in Europe to offer UMTS-based national Wireless Internet services. Airtel has already deployed UMTS radio base station equipment in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Seville, and plans to launch commercial 3G services in August 2001 in 23 cities, expecting to reach at least 25 percent of Spain's population. "Our customers are asking us to help position them for a profitable future," said Frank Plastina, president, Wireless Internet, Nortel Networks. "We are a leader in the global race to win 3G contracts, and are proving our ability to deliver time to market advantage, giving operators the chance to realize early business advantages." Nortel Networks was selected by Airtel last September as primary supplier to provide the initial phase of its UMTS network in an agreement estimated to be worth US100 million over 12 months. Nortel Networks has announced UMTS awards estimated to be worth more than US2.1 billion, including BT Cellnet and One 2 One in the United Kingdom, T-Mobile in Germany, max.mobile in Austria, Airtel and Xfera in Spain, and AT&T Wireless in the United States. The first phase of Airtel's UMTS network features a fully integrated, end-to-end Wireless Internet solution, including Nortel Networks e-mobility Internet Base Transceiver Stations (BTS). Nortel Networks solutions for building the high-performance Wireless Internet are driven by its 'Wings of Light' strategy, which combines optical, wireless and IP (Internet Protocol) solutions to help operators provide highly-reliable, high-speed access to broadband Internet services virtually 'anytime, anywhere.' The 3GPP standard is intended to ensure that future regional standards will be open, consistent and compatible, allowing for unrestricted roaming and portability.” We have a target on NT of $175 over the next 12 months. NT
These stocks in our “A” Portfolio CORV; CORR; JDSU; SCMR; HWP; NT; MSFT; and DELL all had double digit increases with IMNX and HD having double digit decreases with the rest of the “A” Portfolio not changing much. . The upper resistance levels for the Nasdaq is 2,900 and then 3,000. Support is at 2,790 and then 2,645. We would like to see the Nasdaq stay above 2,800.
The “A” Portfolio is going to a strict percentage gain or loss sell mode for now with the market fluctuating so much at this time. If a position moves up +20% one-quarter of the position will be sold, at +40% another one-quarter will be sold, and then at +75 to +100% another one-quarter of the position will be sold. That will leave one-quarter of the position to ride the stock higher. We still will use –30% to exit a stock position. Our targets for these stocks are on our Charts page.
We will talk about more of the stocks in the “A” Portfolio in the coming weeks.
All the past additions to the “A” Portfolio are on this page now.”A” Portfolio Additions
Please read our disclaimer about the “A” Portfolio here. ”A” Portfolio Disclaimer
Stock Charts for 2000 and 2001
This page has links to all our stock charts and “A” Portfolio results for 2001.The Charts
After we turn from overall market downward momentum to upward momentum these three Canadian companies should rebound well.
Infowave Wireless (IW:TORONTO) Target US$30 Infowave is well positioned to take advantage of the coming boom in wireless email. Thomas Koll(a current VP at Microsoft) will be starting as the companies CEO on February 15. They have many impressive partners including Intel, Nokia and Compaq. Current market conditions have made this stock very oversold.
Rogers Communications (RCB.A:TORONTO) Target US$42 Rogers is Canada's largest cable television company they also have their hands into providing high speed internet as well as cellular and paging services. The long-term outlook for this company is stable and is likely to see steady growth in a booming industry.
Nortel Networks (NT:TORONTO, NT NASDAQ) Target US$175 Many Canadian brokers are raving about the buying opportunity available due to Nortels current price weakness.
LEAPS® information is now on this page. LEAPS®
Stocks We Like
Research in Motion closed the week at $66.75 we have raised our 12 month target to $255 (RIM, TSE) (RIMM, NASDAQ). News for RIMM: “FARMINGTON, Conn., Jan. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Paradigm4, Inc. (http://www.paradigm4.com ) a leading provider of wireless data network services and solutions, announced today that it will offer and support the new BlackBerry Enterprise Edition(TM) for Lotus Domino(TM) from RIM(R) (Research In Motion)(R), (Nasdaq: RIMM). The BlackBerry(TM) wireless email solution, with integrated support for Lotus (R) Notes and Domino is a natural fit for Paradigm4's family of wireless integration services. Blackberry Enterprise Edition(TM) for Lotus Domino(TM) was introduced at Lotusphere 2001, the eighth annual worldwide business and technical conference for Lotus customers. "Blackberry was extremely well received at the Lotusphere user conference last week," said David Werezak, Vice President, Marketing at Research In Motion. "We look forward to working with Paradigm4 to address the demand for secure wireless email in Lotus environments." Paradigm4's long-standing partnership with RIM to sell BlackBerry handheld systems and server software, and associated services will now include customers who operate on the Lotus platform. This approximately doubles the number of enterprise customers that will now have the ability to stay wirelessly connected to their corporate email through BlackBerry. The announcement also marks the first wireless handheld solution to offer tight integration with Lotus Notes(R) and Domino(TM).” We are letting RIMM run for our target of $255. Use a trailing stop of $25 so you do not get stopped out of RIMM to early if you have some large gains from its lows earlier in the year. We would like to add RIMM to the “A” Portfolio if it goes below $50 but this is a very risky long-term play on wireless communications. Since we already have PALM a trader may want to add HAND and have all three in their portfolio.You may have to hold RIMM for 12 – 18 months depending on how the market is doing. RIMM has found partners in AOL and Compaq. Amazon has Crackberry available for $499 with service available at $39.95 per month. RIMM
VIRS (8.00 ) is a very speculative buy at this time. VIRS was +14.33% this last week. VIRS is a strong buy if it sinks down to $5 1/2 – 6 1/2 Only buy it if you can afford to lose all you invest in it. The chart for VIRS is looking good so continue to hold this stock for our $25 target. News from VIRS: No new news from VIRS this week.
Triangle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company engaged in the development of new antiviral drug candidates, with a particular focus on therapies for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), including the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Triangle's proprietary drug candidates under development for HIV and/or HBV include Coviracil(R) (emtricitabine), Coactinon(R) (emivirine), DAPD, L-FMAU (clevudine) and DMP-450. Triangle is also developing immunotherapies for HIV, HBV and HCV in collaboration with Dynavax Technologies Corporation (Dynavax) utilizing Dynavax' immunostimulatory sequence (ISS) technology.”
Management and product development strategy is available on Triangle's website at: VIRS
We are adding another blown up stock as a speculative buy. We are adding ZOOX (3.53) as a very risky buy at $3 ½ or lower with a target of $29 in 12-24 months. ZOOX is currently having a slow down in sales year to year. Its new switch for SANS are not selling as well as management expected. New management has been installed but it may take two or more quarters to fix their inventory oversupply. Well, ZOOX has not been doing very good since we recommended it a few months ago. We would average into more of ZOOX and hold for the long-term. ZOOX may be dead money for the next two-three quarters. News for ZOOX this week: “Gadzoox Networks Q3 FY''01 Conference Call SAN JOSE, Calif., January 9 /PRNewswire/ -- Gadzoox Networks (Nasdaq: ZOOX) will release financial results for its third fiscal 2001 quarter on Monday, January 22, 2000, at approximately 1:30 p.m. Pacific Standard Time (PST). The company will be holding a conference call at 2:30 p.m. PST on January 22 to discuss results and answer questions. Interested parties are invited to participate either by phone or live webcast. To obtain the conference call information, go to ZOOX. Enter your name, company and email address, click on submit and the call details will be sent to you directly by email. The live webcast can be accessed at ZOOX Click on the Calendar of Events and then click on Live Webcast.”
“Gadzoox Networks (ZOOX) retreated more than 16 percent after the company reported earnings a penny shy of analysts' estimates, as polled by First Call/Thompson Financial. The computer networking company reported a loss of $12 million, or 43 cents a share, vs. $1.8 million, or 7 cents a share reported during the same quarter last year. Revenue also shrunk to $7.2 million, down from $12.6 million last year.”Only buy this stock if you can afford to lose your entire investment in ZOOX.ZOOX
Over the next few weeks we will talk about the stocks in our “A” Portfolio. We start off with IMNX this week. We will add more IMNX to the "A" Portfolio if it trades under $32 1/2. IMNX ($34.38) reported earnings on January 24, 2001 and here it their report:
“SEATTLE, Jan. 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Immunex Corporation (Nasdaq: IMNX) today reported net income of 154.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2000, or 28 cents per share, on revenues of 861.8 million. This record-setting performance for the company reflects significant growth over 1999 results, when the company posted net income of 44.3 million, or 8 cents per share, on revenues of 541.7 million.
For the three months ending December 31, 2000, Immunex reported net income of 49.2 million, or 9 cents per share, on revenues of 250.7 million, compared to net income of 16.2 million, or 3 cents per share, on revenues of 162.6 million for the same period in 1999. Also during the quarter, a note for 450 million held by American Home Products Corporation (NYSE: AHP) was converted to Immunex common stock.
For the year, the company generated positive cash flow from operations of 171.9 million. Cash and marketable securities at December 31, 2000 totaled 1.6 billion, due largely to the successful completion of an equity offering that netted Immunex proceeds in excess of 770 million.
Total product sales for the year grew 60 percent, to 828.8 million in 2000 from 519.3 million in 1999. "Record product sales have allowed Immunex to increase investments in research and development to create the next generation of innovative medicines for patients, and new value for our shareholders," said Immunex chairman and chief executive officer, Ed Fritzky. "In 2001, we expect to advance products forward in seven disease areas, including clinical trials for the first time of two new molecules: IL-1 receptor type 2 in inflammation and TRAIL/Apo2 ligand in cancer. Ending the year with 1.6 billion in cash, we are well positioned to capitalize on our many opportunities for future value creation."
Sales of ENBREL(R) (etanercept), a leading biologic treatment for rheumatoid arthritis, increased 78 percent to 652.4 million in 2000, its second full year on the market. "At the launch of ENBREL, we set a sales goal of 500 million for its third year, and sales of ENBREL in its second year of over 650 million have far exceeded that goal," said Peggy Phillips, Immunex chief operating officer. "This demand demonstrates both the value ENBREL can bring to patients, and why we are expanding capacity as rapidly as possible -- to make ENBREL available for all patients who are candidates for therapy. In addition, we are pleased to announce that ENBREL has received an updated indication and is now the only biologic treatment indicated for first-line use to inhibit the progression of structural damage in patients with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis."
Fourth quarter 2000 sales of ENBREL totaled 194.1 million, a gain of 65 percent over the same period in 1999 and 13 percent over the third quarter of 2000. As earlier announced, this strong demand for ENBREL has reached the company's current manufacturing capacity. To help ensure that patients already using ENBREL have uninterrupted access, the company has registered over 70,000 patients in the ENBREL Enrollment Program to continue to receive the medicine. Immunex has also established a queue system for new patients. New patients who enroll in the program will receive supply when it becomes available. A manufacturing facility in Rhode Island is now being retrofit to produce ENBREL in 2002 and, assuming regulatory approval, should potentially double the supply.
The company's specialty therapeutics product line posted an overall increase of 18 percent over 1999 levels. For the year 2000, net sales of the immune system modulator LEUKINE(R) (sargramostim) grew 28 percent over 1999 to 88.3 million. Net sales of NOVANTRONE(R) (mitoxantrone for injection concentrate) totaled 59.9 million, an increase of 35 percent over 1999. NOVANTRONE was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a new use during the fourth quarter 2000, to treat worsening forms of multiple sclerosis.
Research and development expenses totaled 166.7 million for the year, compared to 126.7 million in 1999, reflecting a range of new investments in research and product collaborations to expand and accelerate the company's new product pipeline. "Immunex agreements with Celera, Abgenix and Cambridge Antibody Technology this year have broadened our research capabilities with the latest genomics tools, and created a comprehensive strategy for development of fully human therapeutic monoclonal antibodies," stated Doug Williams, Ph.D., Immunex chief technology officer. "Moreover, our new process science facility opens new pathways for moving more Immunex and collaborator molecules into clinical trials, faster.”
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 20% is used where appropriate.
Our 1999 BUYS and their targets are located on this page Stock Picks 1999
Income and Bonds
We recommend buying utilities based in Florida and not any utilities based in California. The reason is California based utilities do not produce enough of their own power and have to go onto the open market to buy power during peak usage. California utilities are having trouble and two of them Edison Intl. (EIX) and P G & E Corp. (PCG) are having problems so stay away from them for now. The authorities in California granted EIX and PCG some rate increases for the next 90 days but it may not help those two utilities enough in their cash flow and they still may end up in bankruptcy. Well, EIX has said this morning Tuesday January 16th that they will stop paying all their suppliers. We would stay away from any power generators that supply power to any California utilities at this time. For a person needing some income be sure to look into electric utilities for some bargain buying opportunities to take advantage of the high dividend paying utilities. We would buy 10-year treasuries for income and some appreciation if interest rates were lowered more this year. We recommend 3-6 months Treasuries because they are currently yielding 5.0%. CEI yield has gone down to 9.7% but it is still a buy for its yield and our target is $32.
Stocks for 2001
The new stocks we have added to our charts for 2001 are: INSP; IMNX; ICOS; TQNT; TGEN; SBUX; RSTA; CRXA; COST; WM; ISLD; MCOM; CHKP; EMLX; ITWO; MANU; JNPR; MUSE; VRTS; QLGC; VRTY; ACRT; AREM; CHCS; INRS; PWER; PDII; SNWL; CHEZ; KO; CORV; GPS; GSPN; MDT; MRCY; AMCC; VTSS; XLNX; BKE; MYGN; CHIR; APC; DVN; JNY; MCLD; NBR; PTEN; QQQ; and TXN. We dropped the following stocks: T; EWEB; ROWE; SGAI; PCOR; PCNTF; ICY; AND LU. You will notice there we be more sections in the charts section of the website. We still will have sections called 12 month, Like, and Tracking. With new sections for Beaten up stocks from 2000, an ADV section for stocks new to our Newsletter, and a section called Dogs of the Dow. Dogs of the Dow are five stocks chosen from the Dow Jones Average of 30 stocks that has shown to beat the market over the past few years.
Some the company’s reports written about Stocks 2001 in the newsletter are here Stock Picks 2001
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 30% is used where appropriate.
We have moved our BUYS for 1999 to here 1999 Stock Picks
Readers will notice all our stocks we follow are on a separate page and we will list prices to purchase stocks at and a target price that we feel the stocks have of reaching in 12 months.
The Shopping Page
The Shopping Page #2