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The Week Past
Well, we had the Dow up small last week by finishing +1.9% for the week, the Nasdaq finished the week -4.3%, The Russell 2000 was +0.6%, and the S & P 500 was -0.4%. All traders should pay closer attention to their mental stops or plan on riding out some bumps along the way.
This last week was a small upturn for the Dow and a medium downturn for the Nasdaq. We believe margin is fine to use if you DO NOT margin all your holdings. We feel it would be prudent to have 1/2 of an account on margin at this time.
We believe that a long-term or swing-trader should have 1/2 of their portfolio on margin at this time. A daytrader could have some margin of up to 3/4 of his holdings if you use tight stops. We want short-term traders to have their stops in a tighter range of –10% to -15% We suggest using -30% stops on your long-term positions at this time.
Well, the Dow was up small and the Nasdaq finished the week up small also.
LU and T still warrant being sold due to management issues. We still feel these two stocks should still be sold even though they both have moved up some in these last two weeks. LU has announced they will lay-off 10,000 workers.
The Economic report coming this week is: on February 8th at 8:30 AM EST the Initial Claims for jobless claims report will be released. This report will rate a C+ on a scale of A-F. Everyone should place close attention to pre-market trading and how the futures are acting each morning before the market opens for trading.
IPOs by M_A_Trader©:
Ipos are now slowly starting to come out as the market goes higher. There will not be many ipos coming to the market so check on them at this web site. Click on Ipo Info is a great site to research ipos.WARNING: IF YOU BUY IPOs AFTER THE STOCK OPENS USE LIMIT ORDERS ONLY.
”A” Portfolio Stock Report by M_A_Trader©
Nortel (NT, TSE)(NT, NYSE) Nortel closed the week at $35.76. We now have a 12-month target on NT of $175 US. News for NT:
“ TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 1, 2001--Nortel Networks Limited ("NNL") today announced an offering of US1.5 billion of 6.125 Notes which mature on February 15, 2006. The offering is expected to close on February 8, 2001. The securities are being offered pursuant to a prospectus supplement dated February 1, 2001 and accompanying prospectus related to an effective shelf registration statement filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission by NNL. NNL will apply the net proceeds of the offering to its general funds to be used for general corporate purposes as well as investments in and/or loans to its affiliates, which in turn will use the funds for general corporate purposes. JP Morgan and Salomon Smith Barney are joint lead managers of the issue. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state. These securities will not be qualified for sale in any province or territory of Canada by way of a prospectus and may not be offered or sold in Canada except pursuant to an available prospectus exemption. NNL is a subsidiary of Nortel Networks Corporation.(a) Nortel Networks is a global Internet and communications leader with capabilities spanning Optical, Wireless, Local Internet and eBusiness. Nortel Networks serves carrier, service provider and enterprise customers globally. Today, Nortel Networks is creating a high-performance Internet that is more reliable and faster than ever before. It is redefining the economics and quality of networking and the Internet, promising a new era of collaboration, communications and commerce.” We have a target on NT of $175 over the next 12 months. NT
These stocks in our “A” Portfolio MLNM; EXTR; PALM; CORR; SCMR; and JDSU all had double digit decreases with the rest of the “A” Portfolio not changing much. . The upper resistance levels for the Nasdaq is 2,800 and then 3,000. Support is at 2,600 and then 2,545. We would like to see the Nasdaq stay above 2,500.
The “A” Portfolio is going to a strict percentage gain or loss sell mode for now with the market fluctuating so much at this time. If a position moves up +20% one-quarter of the position will be sold, at +40% another one-quarter will be sold, and then at +75 to +100% another one-quarter of the position will be sold. That will leave one-quarter of the position to ride the stock higher. We still will use –30% to exit a stock position. Our targets for these stocks are on our Charts page.
We will talk about more of the stocks in the “A” Portfolio in the coming weeks.
All the past additions to the “A” Portfolio are on this page now.”A” Portfolio Additions
Please read our disclaimer about the “A” Portfolio here. ”A” Portfolio Disclaimer
Stock Charts for 2000 and 2001
This page has links to all our stock charts and “A” Portfolio results for 2001.The Charts
After we turn from overall market downward momentum to upward momentum these three Canadian companies should rebound well.
Infowave Wireless (IW:TORONTO) Target US$30 Infowave is well positioned to take advantage of the coming boom in wireless email. Thomas Koll(a current VP at Microsoft) will be starting as the companies CEO on February 15. They have many impressive partners including Intel, Nokia and Compaq. Current market conditions have made this stock very oversold.
Rogers Communications (RCB.A:TORONTO) Target US$42 Rogers is Canada's largest cable television company they also have their hands into providing high speed internet as well as cellular and paging services. The long-term outlook for this company is stable and is likely to see steady growth in a booming industry.
Nortel Networks (NT:TORONTO, NT NASDAQ) Target US$175 Many Canadian brokers are raving about the buying opportunity available due to Nortels current price weakness.
LEAPS® information is now on this page. LEAPS®
Stocks We Like
Research in Motion closed the week at $62 5/8 we have raised our 12 month target to $255 (RIM, TSE) (RIMM, NASDAQ). News for RIMM: No new news for RIMM. We are letting RIMM run for our target of $255. Use a trailing stop so you do not get stopped out of RIMM to early if you have some large gains from its lows earlier in the year. We would like to add RIMM to the “A” Portfolio if it goes below $50 but this is a very risky long-term play on wireless communications. Since we already have PALM a trader may want to add HAND and have all three in their portfolio.You may have to hold RIMM for 12 – 18 months depending on how the market is doing. RIMM has found partners in AOL and Compaq. Amazon has Crackberry available for $499 with service available at $39.95 per month. RIMM
VIRS (7.00 ) is a very speculative buy at this time. VIRS was –12.50% this last week. VIRS is a strong buy if it sinks down to $5 1/2 – 6 1/2 Only buy it if you can afford to lose all you invest in it. The chart for VIRS is looking good so continue to hold this stock for our $25 target. News from VIRS: “ DURHAM, N.C., Jan. 31 /PRNewswire/ -- Triangle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: VIRS) announced today that it has entered into definitive purchase agreements with a limited number of qualified institutional buyers and large institutional accredited investors for the sale of 7,700,000 shares of common stock at 6 per share, with gross proceeds totaling 46.2 million. The closing of the common stock sale will occur within three business days of the date the Securities and Exchange Commission confirms its willingness to declare effective the resale registration statement being filed in connection with the offering. Abbott Laboratories, Triangle's largest stockholder and collaborative partner, agreed to purchase 1.3 million shares of the common stock at the closing. Banc of America Securities, LLC served as placement agent for the financing. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the sale of the financing for general corporate purposes, including the manufacture of drug product, the execution of drug development programs and other commercial development, general and administrative expenditures. Dr. David Barry, Chairman and CEO of Triangle Pharmaceuticals commented, "We are very pleased with the confidence that these investors have shown in the Company and with the progress we are making in the development of our compounds. We are particularly gratified that some of the investors, ncluding Abbott, are adding to their positions in the Company. The additional funds will enable us to continue our portfolio approach to drug development and to progress toward regulatory submissions for approval.”
DURHAM, N.C., Feb. 5 /PRNewswire/ -- Triangle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: VIRS) announced that it is presenting data today from two Phase III, 48-week trials which included over 900 patients comparing once-daily Coviracil(R) (emtricitabine, FTC) to twice- daily lamivudine (3TC) in HIV-infected patients receiving triple therapy combination regimens (study protocols FTC-302/303). The Company also announced that researchers from the Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA (ANRS) in France will present the 64-week results of a study examining the effectiveness and tolerability of a once-daily regimen containing FTC, didanosine (ddI) and efavirenz (EFV) (Montana study/ANRS 091 trial). Collectively, these studies showed that FTC was generally well-tolerated and provided antiviral and immunologic benefits to the patients in the studies. Triangle is developing Coviracil, a nucleoside analogue, for the treatment of HIV and the hepatitis B virus.
Studies FTC-302 and FTC-303
Both FTC-302 and FTC-303 were randomized, controlled trials comparing FTC (200 mg once daily) to 3TC (150 mg twice daily) in triple therapy combination regimens. FTC-302, a double-blind study, compared FTC to 3TC in a background of stavudine (d4T) and either nevirapine (in patients with baseline HIV-1 RNA less than or equal to 100,000 copies/mL) or efavirenz (in patients with baseline HIV-1 RNA greater than 100,000 copies/mL) in 468 antiretroviral treatment naive HIV-infected patients in South Africa. FTC-303 was an open- label switch study of 440 HIV-infected patients in the United States who had been virally-suppressed with a 3TC-containing regimen for a median of 35 months. Patients were randomly selected to switch in a 2 to 1 ratio from twice-daily 3TC to once-daily Coviracil or remain on 3TC.
Antiviral effect was measured in both studies by a number of different analyses. Preliminary, unaudited data from study FTC-302 indicate that 61 and 65 of patients in the FTC and 3TC groups, respectively, had fewer than 50 copies/mL at Week 48 on an intent-to-treat, missing equals failure basis. The incidence of virologic failure associated with resistance development was similar in both groups (3.6 and 4.3 for FTC and 3TC, respectively). There was a higher incidence of virologic failure not associated with resistance in the FTC arm (5.3 vs. 1.3 for the 3TC arm). The cause of this disparity is being examined but may have been the result of less than optimal adherence to the experimental regimen, as there was little difference in overall virologic failure noted in women (11.1 vs. 9.3) or in patients with high viral load (8.3 vs. 7.9) in the FTC and 3TC arms, respectively. In study FTC-303, loss of virologic suppression at any time during the 48-week observation period occurred in only 8 of patients in each treatment arm.
Both FTC and 3TC were generally well-tolerated by the majority of patients in both studies. Adverse reactions were predominately mild to moderate in both groups with the exception of some episodes of severe liver toxicity in study FTC-302. In this study, severe liver toxicity was seen in 17 of the patients receiving nevirapine (14 in the FTC arm and 19 in the 3TC arm), whereas none of the patients receiving efavirenz concomitantly with 3TC or FTC developed such hepatotoxicity. The overall rate of liver toxicity observed in study FTC-302 is consistent with the frequency observed in other published studies with nevirapine, including those where neither FTC nor 3TC was part of the regimen.
"Because the last patient reached Week 48 in study FTC-302 less than a month ago, it will take us several more weeks to assemble and finalize all of the statistics and quality assure the data. In April 2000, the FDA issued a clinical hold on study FTC-302 and indicated that as a result of the factors considered in issuing the clinical hold, this study may not provide adequate support as part of an NDA submission. Following finalization of the data analysis, we will discuss these issues and the data with the FDA regarding the utility of this study in future regulatory submissions," stated Dr. David Barry, Chairman and CEO of Triangle Pharmaceuticals. "We are pleased that we were able to complete study FTC-302 in South Africa in spite of a number of challenges," continued Dr. Barry. "The study was conducted solely in South Africa and subsequent to continuing interactions with the South African regulatory authorities, the study was completed in a blinded fashion. We wish to thank the patients and clinicians for their steadfastness and perseverance in continuing with the study in a difficult environment."
Montana Study (ANRS) In the Montana study, 40 antiretroviral naive HIV-infected patients received a once-daily regimen of FTC (200 mg), ddI and efavirenz. Median plasma HIV RNA at baseline was approximately 60,000 copies/mL. The once-daily combination was generally well-tolerated and demonstrated strong antiviral and immunologic effects that were sustained during the 64-week observation period to date. After 64 weeks of therapy, 90 of patients (36/40) maintained plasma HIV RNA below 400 copies/mL on an intent-to-treat basis. The median baseline CD4 count was 373 cells/mL, increasing by a median of 219 cells/mL at Week 64. The most common treatment-related adverse events were reported during the first 24 weeks of the study. Two patients developed hypertriglyceridemias that may have been treatment related only two patients stopped trial treatment because of adverse events. In addition to these studies, Triangle is also currently enrolling HIV- infected patients in study FTC-301, a Phase III, 48-week, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial planned for 100 clinical sites in the United States, Europe and Latin America. Patients will receive either FTC, ddI and EFV or d4T, ddI and EFV. The ANRS is completing enrollment in its ALIZE study, an open-label study in France. Virally-suppressed patients on a stable triple regimen containing 3TC are randomly assigned to continue the regimen or switch to a once-a-day regimen of FTC, ddI and EFV.”
Triangle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company engaged in the development of new antiviral drug candidates, with a particular focus on therapies for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), including the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Triangle's proprietary drug candidates under development for HIV and/or HBV include Coviracil(R) (emtricitabine), Coactinon(R) (emivirine), DAPD, L-FMAU (clevudine) and DMP-450. Triangle is also developing immunotherapies for HIV, HBV and HCV in collaboration with Dynavax Technologies Corporation (Dynavax) utilizing Dynavax' immunostimulatory sequence (ISS) technology.”
Management and product development strategy is available on Triangle's website at: VIRS
We are adding another blown up stock as a speculative buy. We are adding ZOOX (4.03), -16% for the week, as a very risky buy at $3 ½ or lower with a target of $29 in 12-24 months. ZOOX is currently having a slow down in sales year to year. Its new switch for SANS are not selling as well as management expected. New management has been installed but it may take two or more quarters to fix their inventory oversupply. Well, ZOOX has not been doing very good since we recommended it a few months ago. We would average into more of ZOOX and hold for the long-term. ZOOX may be dead money for the next two-three quarters. News for ZOOX this week: No new news for ZOOX this week. Only buy this stock if you can afford to lose your entire investment in ZOOX.ZOOX
Over the next few weeks we will talk about the stocks in our “A” Portfolio. We start off with IMNX last week. IMNX reported earnings on January 24, 2001 ($31.50) IMNX News for IMNX this week: No new news for IMNX this week.
Last week we talked about Corvis Corporation CORV (18.19): No new news on CORV. CORV
This week we are talking about Sycamore Networks (SCMR) (28.06): “SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 2 /PRNewswire/ -- Seth Spalding, Senior Analyst, Communications Equipment with Epoch Partners issued a research note today on Sycamore Networks (Nasdaq: SCMR). The following are key highlights included in the Research Note: Sycamore Networks: Lowering Our Estimates -- Sycamore Networks could be the latest victim of extended timing for network build outs. -- We cannot envision Sycamore meeting our lofty operating estimates, and are trimming our sequential revenue growth projections for the second-half of FY01 and all of FY02. -- The silver lining behind this economic cloud is that Sycamore is still attractively valued relative to its next-generation competitors, which do not have Sycamore's product and customer depth. -- We anticipate that guidance may be adjusted downward on the upcoming conference call, though the stock already reflects this sentiment. -- We continue to endorse Sycamore's technology platform, and product breadth, and recommend that long-term investors use the anticipated volatility in the stock to accumulate a position.” SCMR
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 20% is used where appropriate.Income and Bonds
We recommend buying utilities based in Florida and not any utilities based in California. The reason is California based utilities do not produce enough of their own power and have to go onto the open market to buy power during peak usage. California utilities are having trouble and two of them Edison Intl. (EIX) and P G & E Corp. (PCG) are having problems so stay away from them for now. The authorities in California granted EIX and PCG some rate increases for the next 90 days but it may not help those two utilities enough in their cash flow and they still may end up in bankruptcy. Well, EIX has said this morning Tuesday January 16th that they will stop paying all their suppliers. We would stay away from any power generators that supply power to any California utilities at this time. For a person needing some income be sure to look into electric utilities for some bargain buying opportunities to take advantage of the high dividend paying utilities. We would buy 10-year treasuries for income and some appreciation if interest rates were lowered more this year. We recommend 3-6 months Treasuries because they are currently yielding 5.0%. CEI yield has gone down to 9.7% but it is still a buy for its yield and our target is $32.
Stocks for 2001
The new stocks we have added to our charts for 2001 are: INSP; IMNX; ICOS; TQNT; TGEN; SBUX; RSTA; CRXA; COST; WM; ISLD; MCOM; CHKP; EMLX; ITWO; MANU; JNPR; MUSE; VRTS; QLGC; VRTY; ACRT; AREM; CHCS; INRS; PWER; PDII; SNWL; CHEZ; KO; CORV; GPS; GSPN; MDT; MRCY; AMCC; VTSS; XLNX; BKE; MYGN; CHIR; APC; DVN; JNY; MCLD; NBR; PTEN; QQQ; and TXN. We dropped the following stocks: T; EWEB; ROWE; SGAI; PCOR; PCNTF; ICY; AND LU. You will notice there we be more sections in the charts section of the website. We still will have sections called 12 month, Like, and Tracking. With new sections for Beaten up stocks from 2000, an ADV section for stocks new to our Newsletter, and a section called Dogs of the Dow. Dogs of the Dow are five stocks chosen from the Dow Jones Average of 30 stocks that has shown to beat the market over the past few years.
Some the company’s reports written about Stocks 2001 in the newsletter are here Stock Picks 2001
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 30% is used where appropriate.
Readers will notice all our stocks we follow are on a separate page and we will list prices to purchase stocks at and a target price that we feel the stocks have of reaching in 12 months.