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The Week Past
Well, we had the Dow up small last week by finishing +3.4% for the week, the Nasdaq finished the week +14.0%, The S & P 400 was +6.4%, and the S & P 500 was +4.9%. All traders should pay closer attention to their mental stops or plan on riding out some bumps along the way.
This last week was a small upturn for the Dow and a large upturn for the Nasdaq. We believe margin is fine to use if you DO NOT margin all your holdings. We feel it would be prudent to have 1/4 of an account on margin at this time.
We believe that a long-term or swing-trader should have NONE of their portfolio on margin at this time. A daytrader could have some margin of up to 1/2 of his holdings if you use tight stops. We want short-term traders to have their stops in a tighter range of –5% to -10% We suggest using -20% stops on your long-term positions at this time.
Well, the Dow was down small and the Nasdaq finished the week down large.
Last Weeks Economic News
The Economic reports coming this week are: on April 12th at 8:30 AM EST the Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be released, at 8:30 AM EST the Initial Claims report on state joblessness will be released, and at 8:30 AM EST the Retail Sales report will be released; and on April 13th at 8:30 AM EST the Business Inventories report will be released.
This Weeks Economic News
The reports are: on April 17th at 8:30 AM EST the Housing and Building Permits reports will be released, at 8:30 AM EST the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released, and at 9:15 AM EST the Industrial Production report will be released; on April 18th at 8:30 AM EST the International Trade report will be released; and on April 19th at 8:30 AM EST the Initial Claims for joblessness report will be released. These reports will rate a C- to A- on a scale of A-F. Everyone should place close attention to pre-market trading and how the futures are acting each morning before the market opens for trading.
IPOs by M_A_Trader©:
Ipos are not coming out now as the market goes lower. There will not be many ipos coming to the market so check them out on at this web site. Click on Ipo Info is a great site to research ipos.WARNING: IF YOU BUY IPOs AFTER THE STOCK OPENS USE LIMIT ORDERS ONLY.
We have heard FRONTIER OIL CORPORATION (NYSE: FTO) may become a takeover candidate at $15-16. This stock would be a very speculative play in the energy sector. Buy under $9 with a mental stop at $6 ½. Only use money you can afford to lose all of it in this type of trade.
The FED fund futures is saying the FED needs to cut rates before the FED meets in May. But some analysts say the FED will not do anything until they meet in May. Well, what do analysts know! The FED lowered rates 50 basis points on Wednesday April 18th, 2001. The Dow and Nasdaq proceeded to rise 3.91% and 8.12% respectively.
”A” Portfolio Stock Report by M_A_Trader©
We have added AXP at $37.50; FRE at $60.50; and XLF at $25.50 to the “A” Portfolio this last weeks Monday. All three stocks are in the financial sector. We will report on each of them in next weeks newsletter.NT
These stocks in our “A” Portfolio all had double-digit increases on April 12th – MLNM +12.71%; HAND +18.26%; CORV +21.48%; RIMM +28.91%; JDSU +11.86%; CORR +10.19%; and EXTR +10.34% with the rest of the “A” Portfolio not changing much. . The upper resistance levels for the Nasdaq is 2,000 and then 2,275. Support is at 1,800 and then 1,645. We would like to see the Nasdaq stay above 1,900.
The “A” Portfolio is going to a strict percentage gain or loss sell mode for now with the market fluctuating so much at this time. If a position moves up +20% one-quarter of the position will be sold, at +40% another one-quarter will be sold, and then at +75 to +100% another one-quarter of the position will be sold. That will leave one-quarter of the position to ride the stock higher. We still will use –30% to exit a stock position. Our targets for these stocks are on our Charts page.
We will talk about more of the stocks in the “A” Portfolio in the coming weeks.
All the past additions to the “A” Portfolio are on this page now.”A” Portfolio Additions
Please read our disclaimer about the “A” Portfolio here. ”A” Portfolio Disclaimer
Stock Charts for 2000 and 2001
This page has links to all our stock charts and “A” Portfolio results for 2001.The Charts
After we turn from overall market downward momentum to upward momentum these two Canadian companies should rebound well.
Infowave Wireless (IW:TORONTO) Target US$30 Infowave is well positioned to take advantage of the coming boom in wireless email. Thomas Koll(a current VP at Microsoft) will be starting as the companies CEO on February 15. They have many impressive partners including Intel, Nokia and Compaq. Current market conditions have made this stock very oversold.
Rogers Communications (RCB.A:TORONTO) Target US$42 Rogers is Canada's largest cable television company they also have their hands into providing high speed internet as well as cellular and paging services. The long-term outlook for this company is stable and is likely to see steady growth in a booming industry.
LEAPS® information is now on this page. LEAPS®
Stocks We Like
Research in Motion closed the week at $28.27 we have lowered our 12 month target to $155 (RIM, TSE) (RIMM, NASDAQ). News for RIMM: We are letting RIMM run for our target of $155. Use a trailing stop so you do not get stopped out of RIMM to early if you have some large gains from its lows earlier last year. We would like to add RIMM to the “A” Portfolio if it goes below $50 but this is a very risky long-term play on wireless communications. Since we already have PALM a trader may want to add HAND and have all three in their portfolio.We added RIMM at $40 ¼ and today March 28th we added more RIMM at $20.You may have to hold RIMM for 12 – 18 months depending on how the market is doing. RIMM has found partners in AOL and Compaq. Amazon has Crackberry available for $499 with service available at $39.95 per month. News for RIMM: “WATERLOO, ON, April 11 /PRNewswire/ - Research In Motion Limited (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM, TSE: RIM), a world leader in the mobile communications market, today reported fourth quarter and year end results for the three months and fiscal year ended February 28, 2001. (all figures in US and Canadian GAAP) Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2001 was 90.1 million. This marks a 46 increase over the prior quarter's revenue of 61.6 million and a 249 increase over the 25.8 million generated in the fourth quarter of last year. BlackBerry(TM) subscriber growth continues to be a main revenue driver. As well, shipments of RIM(R) Wireless Handhelds(TM) to AOL contributed to the significant growth. BlackBerry accounted for approximately 48 of the Company's quarterly revenue. RIM Wireless Handhelds accounted for 45 and OEM radio modems accounted for 7. Revenue increased to 221.3 million for the year ended February 28, 2001, representing an increase of 160 over the prior year. The increase for the year was primarily due to substantial growth in RIM Wireless Handheld shipments and BlackBerry subscribers. At the end of February there were approximately 164,000 BlackBerry subscribers in 7,800 companies. "The results reported today mark the completion of another outstanding year for RIM," said Jim Balsillie, Chairman and Co-CEO. "BlackBerry continues its growth as the leading wireless email platform for the North American enterprise market and we are well positioned for our entry to new international markets with next-generation products. We have the resources necessary to execute our business plan and extend our competitive lead and we expect to repeat our success during the upcoming year." Proforma net income for the quarter was 8.3 million or 0.11 per share (0.10 diluted) compared with a net income of 1.5 million in the prior quarter and a net income of 3.2 million in the same quarter last year. For the year, proforma net income was 8.5 million or 0.12 per share (0.11 diluted) compared to net income of 10.5 million or 0.16 per share (0.14 diluted). Due to macroeconomic and financial market conditions, several of RIM's long-term investments have experienced significant non-temporary declines in their value. As a result, RIM has taken a one-time write-down of 14.75 million. After accounting for this one-time write-down, the net loss for the quarter was 6.5 million (0.08 per share). For the year, the net loss was 6.2 million (0.08 per share). Gross research and development expenditures for the quarter were 9.1 million, or 10 of revenue, compared to 6.7 million in the prior quarter, or 11 of revenue, and 3.7 million, or 14 of revenue, in the fourth quarter last year. For the year, gross R&D expenditures were 25.7 million as compared to 12.2 million in the previous year, which represents an increase of 110. R&D expenditures, net of government funding, for the quarter were 7.1 million. Selling, marketing and administration expenses were 22.3 million, or 25 of revenue, for the quarter compared to 16.9 million, or 27 of revenue in the previous quarter and 5.1 million, or 20 of revenue, in the fourth quarter of last year. Planned investments in BlackBerry marketing, co- operative marketing programs, and staffing increases in sales, marketing, and customer support have contributed to the increase. For the year, selling, marketing and administration expenses were 65.2 million. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were 721.9 million at February 28, 2001 as compared to 733.9 million in the previous quarter. The replay of the Company's Q4 conference call can be accessed after 8 p.m. (eastern time) April 11, 2001 until midnight (eastern time) April 18, 2001. It can be accessed by calling (416) 626-4100 and entering reservation number 18450978. The conference call can also be accessed via our web site, live and archived, at RIMM.” RIMM
VIRS (5.95 ) is a very speculative buy at this time. VIRS is a strong buy if it sinks down to $5 1/2 – 6 1/2 Only buy it if you can afford to lose all you invest in it. The chart for VIRS is looking good so continue to hold this stock for our $25 target. News from VIRS: No new news for VIRS now.
Management and product development strategy is available on Triangle's website at: VIRS
We are adding another blown up stock as a speculative buy. We are adding ZOOX (2.00), as a very risky buy at $2 ½ or lower with a target of $29 in 24 months. ZOOX is currently having a slow down in sales year to year. Its new switch for SANS are not selling as well as management expected. New management has been installed but it may take two or more quarters to fix their inventory oversupply. Well, ZOOX has not been doing very good since we recommended it a few months ago. We would average into more of ZOOX and hold for the long-term. ZOOX may be dead money for the next two-three quarters. News for ZOOX this week: “SAN JOSE, Calif., April 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Gadzoox Networks (Nasdaq: ZOOX) will release financial results for its fourth fiscal 2001 quarter on Monday, April 30, 2001, at approximately 1:30 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT). The company will be holding a conference call at 2:30 p.m. PDT on April 30 to discuss results and answer questions. Interested parties are invited to participate either by phone or live webcast. To obtain the conference call information, go to ZOOX. Enter your name, company and email address, click on submit and the call details will be sent to you directly by email. The live webcast can be accessed at ,a href=http://www.gadzoox.com/ir>ZOOX. Click on the Calendar of Events and then click on Live Webcast.” Only buy this stock if you can afford to lose your entire investment in ZOOX.ZOOX
Over the next few weeks we will talk about the stocks in our “A” Portfolio. We start with IMNX. We added more IMNX to our “A” Portfolio because they still will sell all the Enbrel they can produce and have a waiting list for Enbrel. IMNX News for IMNX this week: “SEATTLE, April 11 /PRNewswire/ -- The maker of ENBREL(R) (etanercept) announced today that approximately 2,500 new patients are being offered "active" status in the ENBREL Enrollment Program. Patients are offered active status when they have completed their application and supply is available. "This is good news for thousands of patients who have been waiting to try ENBREL," said Mark Booth, general manager for ENBREL at Immunex Corporation (Nasdaq: IMNX). The ENBREL Enrollment program was launched in November 2000 to identify and enroll current users of the highly prescribed tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor ENBREL because growing demand was projected to exceed the current supply. Immunex and Wyeth-Ayerst Laboratories (a division of American Home Products Corporation, (NYSE: AHP)), the companies that market ENBREL in the United States, initiated the program so that patients already using ENBREL could continue to receive therapy. In an extraordinary response to the program, more than 77,000 patients have joined the ENBREL Enrollment Program, with approximately 67,000 patients having at least one ENBREL prescription filled since January. The companies established a queue system for new patients, to manage demand and available supply. SEATTLE, April 11 /PRNewswire/ -- The maker of ENBREL(R) (etanercept) announced today that approximately 2,500 new patients are being offered "active" status in the ENBREL Enrollment Program. Patients are offered active status when they have completed their application and supply is available. "This is good news for thousands of patients who have been waiting to try ENBREL," said Mark Booth, general manager for ENBREL at Immunex Corporation (Nasdaq: IMNX). The ENBREL Enrollment program was launched in November 2000 to identify and enroll current users of the highly prescribed tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor ENBREL because growing demand was projected to exceed the current supply. Immunex and Wyeth-Ayerst Laboratories (a division of American Home Products Corporation, (NYSE: AHP)), the companies that market ENBREL in the United States, initiated the program so that patients already using ENBREL could continue to receive therapy. In an extraordinary response to the program, more than 77,000 patients have joined the ENBREL Enrollment Program, with approximately 67,000 patients having at least one ENBREL prescription filled since January. The companies established a queue system for new patients, to manage demand and available supply. "Because we now better understand the ordering and utilization patterns of current users in the program, we are very pleased that we can now make ENBREL available to a number of new patients," said Booth. "We anticipate activating more new patients who are waiting to use ENBREL as usage patterns and available supply allows." New patients interested in using ENBREL can call 888-4ENBREL to enroll in the program and will join the patient queue. As the companies have previously announced, supplies of ENBREL will be limited until mid-2002, when a manufacturing facility expansion is expected to be completed. The new facility in Rhode Island is one part of a strategic program to increase manufacturing supply of ENBREL. The program also includes development of another manufacturing facility in Ireland, which is expected to produce ENBREL for the commercial market by 2005.”
Corvis Corporation CORV News for CORV: “COLUMBIA, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 10, 2001--Corvis Corporation (NASDAQ:CORV), the only company delivering intelligent all-optical networking solutions, today announced that it will release its financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2001, after the market closes on Thursday, April 26, 2001. The company will host an earnings conference call reviewing these results beginning at 5:30 p.m. EST. The conference call will be webcast on the company's corporate website at www.corvis.com. The webcast will be archived on the corporate website for replay purposes.” CORV
Sycamore Networks (SCMR) News for SCMR: No new news for SCMR. SCMR
Ceragon Networks Ltd. (CRNT $13.75) News for CRNT: “TEL AVIV, Israel--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 11, 2001--Ceragon Networks Ltd. (Nasdaq:CRNT), a global provider of high-capacity broadband wireless systems for next generation communications networks, today announced that the company's first quarter financial results will be reported on April 23, 2001. At present, Ceragon expects first quarter revenues of approximately 12.6 million, excluding first quarter shipments to a U.S. Wireless competitive local exchange carrier (CLEC), which recently announced its intention to halt new network build out and reduce capital expenditures due to current uncertainty of collection. Ceragon expects to record a first quarter pro forma EPS loss of 0.09 to 0.08 with outstanding accounts receivable to this customer of 2.6 million. If first quarter shipments to this customer are included in revenues, then first quarter revenues would be 16.3 million, with pro forma EPS between a loss of 0.01 to 0.00 with outstanding accounts receivable to this customer of 6.3 million. Pro forma EPS excludes the effect of non-cash based deferred compensation and one time charges. With respect to a second U.S. customer, Advanced Radio Telecom (Nasdaq:ARTT), which recently announced its intention to file a petition for protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. bankruptcy laws, Ceragon announced that it has financial exposure to ART of up to approximately 100,000. In addition, certain U.S. CLECs recently postponed delivery of equipment under previously issued purchase orders, resulting in a significantly reduced backlog. "Ceragon is a strong company with solid foundations," said Shraga Katz, president and CEO, Ceragon Networks Ltd. "Our global presence demonstrates our commitment to customer diversification. With extensive deployments that span over 25 countries worldwide, we are confident that our strategy will serve as an anchor in this turbulent market. The company is closely monitoring the U.S. wireless CLEC market and is taking appropriate measures to adjust our operations accordingly." A summary of the measures the company is taking and guidance on future financial performance will be provided during the company's quarterly conference call on April 23, 2001.” CRNT
Capstone Turbine Corp. CPST News for CPST: No new news for CPST. CPSTWe added more CORR to the “A” Portfolio this last week at $18 ¼. News from CORR: “SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.--(BW HealthWire)--April 10, 2001--COR Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: CORR) announced today that it will report its first quarter 2001 financial results on Tuesday, April 17, 2001 at 8:00 a.m Eastern Standard Time (EST). Two hours later, at 10:00 a.m. EST, as part of the Company's efforts to ensure full disclosure to all parties, COR Therapeutics will webcast a conference call live via the Company's internet site. The call will be led by Vaughn M. Kailian, President and Chief Executive Officer. To access the live call or the 5-day archive, please log onto CORR. Alternatively, the webcast may be accessed by logging onto CORR Please connect to either website at least 10 minutes prior to the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be needed to hear the live webcast.” CORR
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 20% is used where appropriate.Income and Bonds
We recommend buying utilities based in Florida and not any utilities based in California. The reason is California based utilities do not produce enough of their own power and have to go onto the open market to buy power during peak usage. California utilities are having trouble and two of them Edison Intl. (EIX) and P G & E Corp. (PCG) are having problems so stay away from them for now. PCG has declared bankruptcy last week and Edison Intl. (EIX) has said they will not declare bankruptcy for now. We would stay away from any power generators that supply power to any California utilities at this time. For a person needing some income be sure to look into electric utilities for some bargain buying opportunities to take advantage of the high dividend paying utilities. We would buy 5-year and 10-year treasuries for income and some appreciation if interest rates were lowered more this year. We recommend 3-6 months Treasuries because they are currently yielding 4.0%. CEI yield has gone down to 9.8% but it is still a buy for its yield and our target is $35. We also like these two reits: CRE yielding 6.5% CarrAmerica Realty is a REIT that focuses primarily on the acquisition, development, ownership and operation of office properties in suburban growth markets in the U.S. Forthe FY ended 12/31/00, revenues rose 8% to $558M. Net income from continuing operation fell 3% to $147.2M. Revenues reflect the development of properties being placed in service and higher occupany rate for store properties. Earnings were offset by a lower gain on the sale of assets. CRE and SPG yielding 7.81% Simon Property Group, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed REIT company, primarily engaged in the expansion & development of real estate properties, primarily malls and shopping centers. For the fiscal year ended 12/31/00, revenues rose 7% to $2.02B. Net income before extra item & acct. change, applic. to Common and limited partners rose 14% to $347.4M. Revenues reflect the CPI merger. Net income reflects gains vs. losses on RE sales. SPG
We have another energy stock we like that has some risk but not as much risk as some of the other energy stocks out in the market. The stock is Entergy (ETR). We will add it to the “A” Portfolio next week at $38 or so and will add more if it goes below $35. We will write more on ETR in our next newsletter.
Stocks for 2001
The new stocks we have added to our charts for 2001 are: INSP; IMNX; ICOS; TQNT; TGEN; SBUX; RSTA; CRXA; COST; WM; ISLD; MCOM; CHKP; EMLX; ITWO; MANU; JNPR; MUSE; VRTS; QLGC; VRTY; ACRT; AREM; CHCS; INRS; PWER; PDII; SNWL; CHEZ; KO; CORV; GPS; GSPN; MDT; MRCY; AMCC; VTSS; XLNX; BKE; MYGN; CHIR; APC; DVN; JNY; MCLD; NBR; PTEN; QQQ; and TXN. We dropped the following stocks: T; EWEB; ROWE; SGAI; PCOR; PCNTF; ICY; AND LU. You will notice there we be more sections in the charts section of the website. We still will have sections called 12 month, Like, and Tracking. With new sections for Beaten up stocks from 2000, an ADV section for stocks new to our Newsletter, and a section called Dogs of the Dow. Dogs of the Dow are five stocks chosen from the Dow Jones Average of 30 stocks that has shown to beat the market over the past few years.
Some the company’s reports written about Stocks 2001 in the newsletter are here Stock Picks 2001
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 30% is used where appropriate.
Readers will notice all our stocks we follow are on a separate page and we will list prices to purchase stocks at and a target price that we feel the stocks have of reaching in 12 months.