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The Week Past
Well, we had the Dow up small last week by finishing +2.2% for the week, the Nasdaq finished the week -4.1%, The S & P 400 was +1.4%, and the S & P 500 was +0.8%. All traders should pay closer attention to their mental stops or plan on riding out some bumps along the way.
This last week was a small upturn for the Dow and a small downturn for the Nasdaq. We believe margin is fine to use if you DO NOT margin all your holdings. We feel it would be prudent to have 1/2 of an account on margin at this time.
We believe that a long-term or swing-trader should have 1/3 of their portfolio on margin at this time. A daytrader could have some margin of up to 1/2 of his holdings if you use tight stops. We want short-term traders to have their stops in a tighter range of –5% to -10% We suggest using -20% stops on your long-term positions at this time.
Well, the Dow was down small and the Nasdaq finished the week down large.
Last Weeks Economic News
The Economic reports coming this week are: on April 24th at 10:00 AM EST the Conference Board Consumer Confidence report will be released; on April 25th at 8:30 AM EST the Durable Goods Orders report will be released and at 10:00 AM EST the Existing and New Home Sales reports will be released; on April 26th at 8:30 AM EST the Initial Claims for joblessness report will be released; and on April 27th at 8:30 AM EST the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report will be released.
This Weeks Economic News
The reports are: on April 30th at 8:30 AM EST the Personal Income and Consumption reports will be released and at 10:00 AM EST The Philadelphia Fed Index and Chicago PMI reports will be released; on May 1st at 12:00 AM EST the Auto and Truck Sales reports will be released; on May 3rd at 8:30 AM EST the Initial Claims for joblessness report will be released; and on May 4th at 8:30 Am EST The Employment Report will be released. These reports will rate a C- to A on a scale of A-F. Everyone should place close attention to pre-market trading and how the futures are acting each morning before the market opens for trading.
IPOs by M_A_Trader©:
Ipos are not coming out now as the market goes lower. There will not be many ipos coming to the market so check them out on at this web site. Click on Ipo Info is a great site to research ipos.WARNING: IF YOU BUY IPOs AFTER THE STOCK OPENS USE LIMIT ORDERS ONLY.
We have heard FRONTIER OIL CORPORATION (NYSE: FTO) may become a takeover candidate at $15-16. This stock would be a very speculative play in the energy sector. Buy under $9 with a mental stop at $6 ½. Only use money you can afford to lose all of it in this type of trade.
The FED fund futures is saying the FED will cut rates in May by 25 basis points. The FED last lowered rates 50 basis points on Wednesday April 18th, 2001.
”A” Portfolio Stock Report by M_A_Trader©
We have added AXP at $37.50; FRE at $60.50; and XLF at $25.50 to the “A” Portfolio this last weeks Monday. All three stocks are in the financial sector. Here is some information on all three companies.
AXP: American Express and its subsidiaries provide travel-related services, financial advisory services, and international banking services worldwide. For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, revenues rose 3% to $5.43B. Net income fell 18% to $538M. Revenues reflect growth from Travel Related Services due to growth in loans, higher billed business and additional cards in force. Earnings were offset by higher losses on the high-yield portfolio. AXP
FRE: FRE securitizes mortgages it has purchased and resells them to investors in the form of guaranteed mortgagepassthrough securities. FRE is also engaged in the purchase& retention of mortgages and guaranteed mortgage securities.For the FY ended 12/31/00, revenues rose 23% to $30B. Net income before extra. item applicable to Common rose 14% to $2.36B. Results reflect higher mortgage securities balances, partially offset by increased borrowings. FRE
Financial Sel Sect Spdr Fd (AMEX: XLF) is a sector spider traded on the AMEX.NT
The upper resistance levels for the Nasdaq is 2,000 and then 2,275. Support is at 1,800 and then 1,645. We would like to see the Nasdaq stay above 1,900.
The “A” Portfolio is going to a strict percentage gain or loss sell mode for now with the market fluctuating so much at this time. If a position moves up +20% one-quarter of the position will be sold, at +40% another one-quarter will be sold, and then at +75 to +100% another one-quarter of the position will be sold. That will leave one-quarter of the position to ride the stock higher. We still will use –30% to exit a stock position. Our targets for these stocks are on our Charts page.
We will talk about more of the stocks in the “A” Portfolio in the coming weeks.
All the past additions to the “A” Portfolio are on this page now.”A” Portfolio Additions
Please read our disclaimer about the “A” Portfolio here. ”A” Portfolio Disclaimer
Stock Charts for 2000 and 2001
This page has links to all our stock charts and “A” Portfolio results for 2001.The Charts
After we turn from overall market downward momentum to upward momentum these two Canadian companies should rebound well.
Infowave Wireless (IW:TORONTO) Target US$30 Infowave is well positioned to take advantage of the coming boom in wireless email. Thomas Koll(a current VP at Microsoft) will be starting as the companies CEO on February 15. They have many impressive partners including Intel, Nokia and Compaq. Current market conditions have made this stock very oversold.
Rogers Communications (RCB.A:TORONTO) Target US$42 Rogers is Canada's largest cable television company they also have their hands into providing high speed internet as well as cellular and paging services. The long-term outlook for this company is stable and is likely to see steady growth in a booming industry.
LEAPS® information is now on this page. LEAPS®
Stocks We Like
Research in Motion closed the week at $32.14 we have lowered our 12 month target to $155 (RIM, TSE) (RIMM, NASDAQ). News for RIMM: We are letting RIMM run for our target of $155. Use a trailing stop so you do not get stopped out of RIMM to early if you have some large gains from its lows earlier last year. We would like to add RIMM to the “A” Portfolio if it goes below $50 but this is a very risky long-term play on wireless communications. Since we already have PALM a trader may want to add HAND and have all three in their portfolio.We added RIMM at $40 ¼ and today March 28th we added more RIMM at $20.You may have to hold RIMM for 12 – 18 months depending on how the market is doing. RIMM has found partners in AOL and Compaq. Amazon has Crackberry available for $499 with service available at $39.95 per month. News for RIMM: No new news for RIMM. RIMM
VIRS (5.50 ) is a very speculative buy at this time. VIRS is a strong buy if it sinks down to $5 1/2 – 6 1/2 Only buy it if you can afford to lose all you invest in it. The chart for VIRS is looking good so continue to hold this stock for our $25 target. News from VIRS: No new news for VIRS now.
Management and product development strategy is available on Triangle's website at: VIRS
We are adding another blown up stock as a speculative buy. We are adding ZOOX (2.00), as a very risky buy at $2 ½ or lower with a target of $29 in 24 months. ZOOX is currently having a slow down in sales year to year. Its new switch for SANS are not selling as well as management expected. New management has been installed but it may take two or more quarters to fix their inventory oversupply. Well, ZOOX has not been doing very good since we recommended it a few months ago. We would average into more of ZOOX and hold for the long-term. ZOOX may be dead money for the next two-three quarters. News for ZOOX this week: “Gadzoox Networks Demonstrates Recently Announced 2Gb Open Fabric Switch In FCIA Pavilion and Partner Booths Gadzoox Networks, a supplier of intelligent storage networking products, will showcase the recently announced Slingshot 4218 at the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) Conference in Las Vegas, April 23 - 26, 2001. With the highest bandwidth available, the Slingshot 4218 was built to handle data intensive applications such as streaming media, back-up and restore, and Online Transaction Processing (OLTP). The Slingshot 4218 is a 2Gb fabric switch based on new standards that enable switch-to switch interoperability and offers new levels of port density and intelligence. Packed with 18 ports, the Slingshot 4218 provides intelligence to the network through auto-negotiation between 1Gb and 2Gb devices, and auto-sensing between Fabric and Loop devices, at every port.” Only buy this stock if you can afford to lose your entire investment in ZOOX.ZOOX
Over the next few weeks we will talk about the stocks in our “A” Portfolio. We start with IMNX. We added more IMNX to our “A” Portfolio because they still will sell all the Enbrel they can produce and have a waiting list for Enbrel. IMNX News for IMNX this week: No new news for IMNX.
Corvis Corporation CORV News for CORV: “COLUMBIA, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 26, 2001--Corvis Corporation (NASDAQ:CORV), the only company delivering intelligent all-optical networking solutions, today announced that Qwest Communications International Inc. will deploy Corvis' CorWave ON product suite in the development of a nationwide all-optical express network. Expanding the product scope of its previously announced contract with Qwest, Corvis will now provide its CorWave ON all-optical transmission and switching products in addition to the CorWave LR ultra-high capacity dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) system. "Corvis' new technology will help Qwest move its data-intensive, distance-independent traffic to an all-optical express layer," said Mike Perusse, Qwest's senior vice president of engineering and technology. "This will allow us to eliminate electronic conversions in the network and drive down costs." Qwest and Corvis will also work together to develop OC-768 next-generation transmission technologies. This R&D partnership will leverage Corvis' lead in 40-Gbps soliton transmission and Raman amplification products with Qwest's commitment to next-generation new product introductions. "We are pleased to expand our relationship with Qwest," said Dr. David Huber, president and CEO, Corvis Corporation. "Under this agreement, Qwest will be able to use Corvis products to optimize their network architecture and offer new broadband applications and revenue-generating services to their customers. We look forward to working together to develop next-generation transmission technologies." Corvis' products allow service providers like Qwest to build an all-optical express transport layer to support their backbone network applications, as well as a high-capacity transport layer for regional and backbone link applications. The express layer eliminates electrical switching and regeneration equipment from the backbone network and provides high-capacity, all-optical networking to support data-intensive, distance- and protocol- independent traffic. The high capacity transport layer supports localized voice and data traffic in regional networks and between major points of presence (POPs), such as Washington, DC and New York City.” CORV
Sycamore Networks (SCMR) News for SCMR: “HELMSFORD, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 25, 2001--Sycamore Networks (NASDAQ: SCMR), a leader in intelligent optical networking, announced today that according to the recent report(1), "European DWDM: Optical Networks," from RHK Inc., the Company's metro solutions have achieved number one market share in the European Metro DWDM market. According to the report, in calendar year 2000, Sycamore secured 32 percent market share of the market for DWDM metro equipment. "Sycamore has clearly demonstrated strength in the European market, going from ground zero in our 1999 research to capture the number one position in the European Metro DWDM market for the year 2000," said Stephane Teral, Director of RHK's Optical Transport, EMEA and Undersea research. "With strong telecom economics in Europe right now, carriers will continue to demand flexible and scalable solutions like Sycamore's metro platforms that address global network builds and expansion plans. RHK conducted research with numerous service providers operating networks all over Europe that included the 15 member states, and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Norway, Poland and Switzerland. Results showed that the incumbent PTTs, CLECs, OLOs and city carriers are all working on continued network expansions and that large traffic volumes brought on by new subscribers or additional Internet usage continue to fuel the need for increased bandwidth. "We are very pleased to have generated as much traction in Europe for our metro platforms since first moving aggressively into this market early last year," says John Owen, managing director for EMEA for Sycamore Networks. "Over the last year, our service provider customers have begun using our metro solutions to rapidly expand their network footprints, extend their service capabilities and enhance their overall time to revenue on new service offerings.” SCMR
Ceragon Networks Ltd. (CRNT $13.75) News for CRNT: “TEL AVIV, Israel--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 23, 2001--Ceragon Networks Ltd. (Nasdaq:CRNT), a global provider of high-capacity broadband wireless systems for next generation communications networks, today reported results for the first quarter, which ended March 31, 2001. Revenues for the first quarter were 12.6 million, as compared to 12.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2000, representing a 294 increase in revenues from 3.2 million in the first quarter of 2000. In the first quarter of 2001, the company incurred one-time charges of 2.6 million for doubtful debt and 11.05 million for an inventory write-down. These charges are excluded from the pro-forma consolidated statements of operations. See note 1 below. Pro-forma gross profit in the first quarter of 2001 was 5.5 million, or 44.1 of revenues, compared to pro-forma gross profit of 5.4 million, or 43.7 of revenues in the fourth quarter of 2000, and to a pro-forma gross profit of 1.3 million, or 41.2 of revenues in the first quarter of 2000. Pro-forma net loss for the first quarter of 2001 was (1.9) million, or (0.09) basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share, compared to a pro-forma net loss in the fourth quarter of 2000 of (0.3) million, or (0.01) basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share. This compares to a pro-forma net loss of (1.2) million, or (0.22) basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share in the first quarter of 2000. Reflecting one-time charges, the effect of stock-based non-cash deferred compensation expenses, and the effect of a non-cash dividend related to convertible preferred shares in 2000, gross profit for the first quarter of 2001 was negative (5.6) million, or negative (44.8) of revenues, compared to a gross profit of 5.2 million, or 42.3 of revenues in the fourth quarter of 2000, and to a gross profit of 1.2 million, or 38.2 of revenues in the first quarter of 2000. Net loss for the first quarter of 2001, including the foregoing charges, expenses and non-cash dividend was (17.7) million, or (0.86) basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share. This compares to a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2000 of (2.7) million or (0.13) basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share, and to (3.0) million, or (0.57) basic and diluted net loss per ordinary share in the first quarter of 2000. "Despite the rapid downturn in the U.S. CLEC market and the resulting short term difficulties, we are optimistic as demand for high-capacity connectivity continues to increase. We believe that wireline technologies alone are not able to keep up with this increasing demand," said Shraga Katz, president and CEO, Ceragon Networks Ltd. "Ceragon remains confident in its on-going strategy based on customer and geographic diversification, which has enabled us to achieve commercial deployments in more than 25 countries. Our longer term strategic goals to expand our presence in other markets, including ILECs, Cellular and Enterprise, will be met by leveraging our technology expertise, strong sales channels, and diverse customer base. Market difficulties, as illustrated by the recent Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of Winstar Communications and the announced intention to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection by Advanced Radio Telecom, has reduced visibility, and revenues for the upcoming quarters are expected to decline. The company is reducing its operating expenses by approximately 30-40. Actions to be taken include a reduction in headcount of approximately 25 and closing a secondary manufacturing facility. One-time charges related to these efforts are estimated to be 4-7 million. Overall expenses are expected to be reduced commencing the third quarter.” CRNT
Capstone Turbine Corp. CPST News for CPST: No new news for CPST. CPSTWe added more CORR to the “A” Portfolio this last week at $18 ¼. News from CORR: “SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, CA--(BW HealthWire)--April 17, 2001--COR Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq:CORR) announced today total sales of INTEGRILIN(R) (eptifibatide) Injection for the quarter ended March 31, 2001 were 38,100,000, as reported to COR by its worldwide partner for INTEGRILIN, Schering-Plough Corporation. Sales of INTEGRILIN in the United States were 33,600,000, in line with prior guidance. COR indicated that demand for INTEGRILIN remains strong, that in-market sales shares are now in the low-30 percent range, and that patient market shares are in the mid-40 percent range. COR reiterated its prior comments that unanticipated reductions of wholesaler inventory levels had significantly affected the sales of INTEGRILIN to wholesalers in the first quarter. COR reported total contract revenues of 22,780,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2001, as compared to 17,896,000 for the same period in 2000. Of that total, 20,632,000 was related to co-promotion revenue from Schering-Plough as compared to 16,904,000 for the comparable quarter last year. The Company reported a net loss of 2,855,000, or 0.05 per share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2001, compared with a net loss of 9,941,000, or 0.19 per share, for the same quarter of 2000. At March 31, 2001, the Company had cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of 338,529,000. COR re-confirmed prior guidance of full-year 2001 worldwide sales of INTEGRILIN in the 245,000,000 to 260,000 range, and full-year 2001 earnings per share between 0.35 - 0.37.” CORR
Three recent additions to the “A” Portfolio are being reported on for this Newsletter.
EMBT: Embarcadero is a provider of software products that enable organizations to build and manage e-business applications and their underlying databases, allowing for the enhancing of databases in response to evolving business requirements. For the FY ended 12/31/00, revenues totaled $40.9M, up from $18.9M. Net loss applic. to Common totaled $9M vs. an income of $2.2M. Results reflect increased licensing revenues, offset by increased non-cash costs. EMBT
PALM: Palm, Inc. develops, designs and markets handheld computing devices, small, pocket-sized devices that feature pen-based input and allow users to automatically copy and synchronize information between the device and a personal computer. For the 39 weeks ended 3/2/01, revenues rose 97% to $1.39B. Net income rose 6% to $35.6M. Results reflect strong demand from individual consumers and enterprise customers, partially offset by increased amortization. PALM
CMRC: Commerce One is a provider of business-to-business electronic commerce solutions that link buyers and suppliers of goods and services into trading communities over the Internet. For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, total revenues totaled $170.3M, up from $35M. Net loss totaled $228.5M, up from $43.6M. Results reflect increased services revenue due to growth of the customer base, offset by increased personnel and amortization expenses. CMRC
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 20% is used where appropriate.Income and Bonds
We recommend buying utilities based in Florida and not any utilities based in California. The reason is California based utilities do not produce enough of their own power and have to go onto the open market to buy power during peak usage. California utilities are having trouble and two of them Edison Intl. (EIX) and P G & E Corp. (PCG) are having problems so stay away from them for now. PCG has declared bankruptcy last week and Edison Intl. (EIX) has said they will not declare bankruptcy for now. We would stay away from any power generators that supply power to any California utilities at this time. For a person needing some income be sure to look into electric utilities for some bargain buying opportunities to take advantage of the high dividend paying utilities. We would buy 5-year and 10-year treasuries for income and some appreciation if interest rates were lowered more this year. We recommend 3-6 months Treasuries because they are currently yielding 4.0%. CEI yield has gone down to 9.8% but it is still a buy for its yield and our target is $35. We also like these two reits: CRE yielding 6.5% CarrAmerica Realty is a REIT that focuses primarily on the acquisition, development, ownership and operation of office properties in suburban growth markets in the U.S. Forthe FY ended 12/31/00, revenues rose 8% to $558M. Net income from continuing operation fell 3% to $147.2M. Revenues reflect the development of properties being placed in service and higher occupany rate for store properties. Earnings were offset by a lower gain on the sale of assets. CRE and SPG yielding 7.81% Simon Property Group, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed REIT company, primarily engaged in the expansion & development of real estate properties, primarily malls and shopping centers. For the fiscal year ended 12/31/00, revenues rose 7% to $2.02B. Net income before extra item & acct. change, applic. to Common and limited partners rose 14% to $347.4M. Revenues reflect the CPI merger. Net income reflects gains vs. losses on RE sales. SPG
We have another energy stock we like that has some risk but not as much risk as some of the other energy stocks out in the market. The stock is Entergy (ETR). We added ETR to the “A” Portfolio at $38.50 on April 16th, 2001. News on ETR: “NEW ORLEANS, April 25 /PRNewswire/ -- Entergy Corporation (NYSE: ETR) today reported first quarter 2001 consolidated earnings that were significantly higher than earnings in the same period of 2000. The increase resulted primarily from the company's competitive businesses, including new business ventures that became operational in the past year. These competitive businesses are not subject to state and local regulation. Earnings per share from Entergy's operations, which include the competitive businesses, set a first quarter record for the company -- easily beating record first quarter results a year ago. On an operational basis, Entergy's earnings were 168.2 million, or 75 cents per share, in first quarter 2001, compared with 114.2 million, or 48 cents per share, in the year-earlier period. As reported earnings, which include the impact of special items, were 154.1 million, or 69 cents per share, in first quarter 2001, compared with 98.8 million, or 42 cents per share, in the year-earlier period. The only special item recorded during the quarter totaled 6 cents per share for expenses related to the merger with FPL Group, Inc. which was terminated on April 2. None of these costs will be charged to Entergy's utility customers. Excluding the impact of weather, first quarter earnings from Entergy's operations increased 25 percent compared to the same period of 2000, primarily due to improved results at Entergy's unregulated nuclear business and the Entergy-Koch joint venture. "Entergy had yet another outstanding quarter," said J. Wayne Leonard, Entergy's chief executive officer. "We're now clearly realizing the financial benefits of our reinvestment plan that began in 1998 with our competitive businesses making substantial contributions to increased revenues and earnings. Our strategy is to achieve market-leading positions in each line of business as part of an integrated wholesale energy strategy. The success of our efforts is evident in all areas: -- Improved performance in our regulated utility is providing a higher level of service and reliability to our customers. -- Entergy's non-utility nuclear business has achieved critical mass and is delivering significantly to overall earnings per share. -- In our wholesale business, the development plan for new generating projects offers us considerable upside over the coming years, as our turbines are deployed. -- And our investment in Entergy-Koch, our wholesale energy marketing and trading venture, is already contributing to earnings in its first quarter of operations. Entergy-Koch has industry-leading capabilities to manage price risk and support strong earnings growth. Our integrated wholesale energy strategy is unfolding, and the first quarter has us off to a great start for the year 2001.”ETR
Stocks for 2001
The new stocks we have added to our charts for 2001 are: INSP; IMNX; ICOS; TQNT; TGEN; SBUX; RSTA; CRXA; COST; WM; ISLD; MCOM; CHKP; EMLX; ITWO; MANU; JNPR; MUSE; VRTS; QLGC; VRTY; ACRT; AREM; CHCS; INRS; PWER; PDII; SNWL; CHEZ; KO; CORV; GPS; GSPN; MDT; MRCY; AMCC; VTSS; XLNX; BKE; MYGN; CHIR; APC; DVN; JNY; MCLD; NBR; PTEN; QQQ; and TXN. We dropped the following stocks: T; EWEB; ROWE; SGAI; PCOR; PCNTF; ICY; AND LU. You will notice there we be more sections in the charts section of the website. We still will have sections called 12 month, Like, and Tracking. With new sections for Beaten up stocks from 2000, an ADV section for stocks new to our Newsletter, and a section called Dogs of the Dow. Dogs of the Dow are five stocks chosen from the Dow Jones Average of 30 stocks that has shown to beat the market over the past few years.
Some the company’s reports written about Stocks 2001 in the newsletter are here Stock Picks 2001
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 30% is used where appropriate.
Readers will notice all our stocks we follow are on a separate page and we will list prices to purchase stocks at and a target price that we feel the stocks have of reaching in 12 months.