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The Week Past
Well, we had the Dow up small last week by finishing +1.3% for the week, the Nasdaq finished the week +5.6%, The S & P 500 was +1.1%, and the Russell 2000 was +1.8%. All traders should pay closer attention to their mental stops or plan on riding out some bumps along the way.
This last week was a small upturn for the Dow and a medium upturn for the Nasdaq. We believe margin is fine to use if you DO NOT margin all your holdings. We feel it would be prudent to have 1/2 of an account on margin at this time.
We believe that a long-term or swing-trader should have 1/3 of their portfolio on margin at this time. A daytrader could have some margin of up to 1/2 of his holdings if you use tight stops. We want short-term traders to have their stops in a tighter range of –5% to -10% We suggest using -20% stops on your long-term positions at this time.
Well, the Dow was down small and the Nasdaq finished the week down large.
Last Weeks Economic News
The Economic reports coming this week are: The reports are: on April 30th at 8:30 AM EST the Personal Income and Consumption reports will be released and at 10:00 AM EST The Philadelphia Fed Index and Chicago PMI reports will be released; on May 1st at 12:00 AM EST the Auto and Truck Sales reports will be released; on May 3rd at 8:30 AM EST the Initial Claims for joblessness report will be released; and on May 4th at 8:30 Am EST The Employment Report will be released.
This Weeks Economic News
The reports are: on May 10th at 8:30 AM EST the International Trade report will be released and at 8:30 AM EST the Initial Claims report on joblessness will be released; and on May 11th at 8:30 AM EST the Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be released and at 8:30 AM EST the Retail Sales report will be released. These reports will rate a C+ to A- on a scale of A-F. Everyone should place close attention to pre-market trading and how the futures are acting each morning before the market opens for trading.
IPOs by M_A_Trader©:
Ipos are not coming out now as the market goes lower. There will not be many ipos coming to the market so check them out on at this web site. Click on Ipo Info is a great site to research ipos.WARNING: IF YOU BUY IPOs AFTER THE STOCK OPENS USE LIMIT ORDERS ONLY.
We have heard FRONTIER OIL CORPORATION (NYSE: FTO) may become a takeover candidate at $15-16. This stock would be a very speculative play in the energy sector. Buy under $9 with a mental stop at $6 ½. Well, FTO is at $12.19 on May 8th so we would recommend a trader sell ¼ of their holdings and take some profits off the table if they bought below $9. Hold the rest for our $16 target and move the stop up to $11.25. Only use money you can afford to lose all of it in this type of trade.
The FED fund futures is now saying the FED will cut rates on May 15th by 50 basis points. The FED last lowered rates 50 basis points on Wednesday April 18th, 2001.
”A” Portfolio Stock Report by M_A_Trader©
We are looking at adding the following stocks to the “A” Portfolio: ISIL at $30 or less; RETK at $30 ¾ or less; CTLM at $31 ¼ or less; and MDT at $44 or less. We will report on these stocks in our next newsletter.
We have added AXP at $37.50; FRE at $60.50; and XLF at $25.50 to the “A” Portfolio this last few weeks . All three stocks are in the financial sector. Here is some information on all three companies.
AXP American Express ($43.23). News for AXP: No new news for AXP. AXP
FRE ($64.90) News for FRE: No new news for FRE. FRE
Financial Sel Sect Spdr Fd (AMEX: XLF $28.12) is a sector spider traded on the AMEX.NT
The upper resistance levels for the Nasdaq is 2,200 and then 2,575. Support is at 2,000 and then 1,945. We would like to see the Nasdaq stay above 2,000.
The “A” Portfolio is going to a strict percentage gain or loss sell mode for now with the market fluctuating so much at this time. If a position moves up +20% one-quarter of the position will be sold, at +40% another one-quarter will be sold, and then at +75 to +100% another one-quarter of the position will be sold. That will leave one-quarter of the position to ride the stock higher. We still will use –30% to exit a stock position. Our targets for these stocks are on our Charts page.
We will talk about more of the stocks in the “A” Portfolio in the coming weeks.
All the past additions to the “A” Portfolio are on this page now.”A” Portfolio Additions
Please read our disclaimer about the “A” Portfolio here. ”A” Portfolio Disclaimer
Stock Charts for 2000 and 2001
The Charts page will be up and running by the end of May 2001.This page has links to all our stock charts and “A” Portfolio results for 2001.The Charts
After we turn from overall market downward momentum to upward momentum these two Canadian companies should rebound well.
Infowave Wireless (IW:TORONTO) Target US$30 Infowave is well positioned to take advantage of the coming boom in wireless email. Thomas Koll(a current VP at Microsoft) will be starting as the companies CEO on February 15. They have many impressive partners including Intel, Nokia and Compaq. Current market conditions have made this stock very oversold.
Rogers Communications (RCB.A:TORONTO) Target US$42 Rogers is Canada's largest cable television company they also have their hands into providing high speed internet as well as cellular and paging services. The long-term outlook for this company is stable and is likely to see steady growth in a booming industry.
LEAPS® information is now on this page. LEAPS®
Stocks We Like
Research in Motion closed the week at $34.10 we have lowered our 12 month target to $155 (RIM, TSE) (RIMM, NASDAQ). News for RIMM: No new news for RIMM. We are letting RIMM run for our target of $155. Use a trailing stop so you do not get stopped out of RIMM to early if you have some large gains from its lows earlier last year. We would like to add RIMM to the “A” Portfolio if it goes below $50 but this is a very risky long-term play on wireless communications. Since we already have PALM a trader may want to add HAND and have all three in their portfolio.We added RIMM at $40 ¼ and today March 28th we added more RIMM at $20.You may have to hold RIMM for 12 – 18 months depending on how the market is doing. RIMM has found partners in AOL and Compaq. Amazon has Crackberry available for $499 with service available at $39.95 per month. News for RIMM: No new news for RIMM. RIMM
VIRS (5.06 ) is a very speculative buy at this time. VIRS is a strong buy if it sinks down to $5 1/2 – 6 1/2 Only buy it if you can afford to lose all you invest in it. The chart for VIRS is looking good so continue to hold this stock for our $25 target. News from VIRS: No new news for VIRS now.
Management and product development strategy is available on Triangle's website at: VIRS
We are adding another blown up stock as a speculative buy. We are adding ZOOX (2.86), as a very risky buy at $2 ½ or lower with a target of $29 in 24 months. ZOOX is currently having a slow down in sales year to year. Its new switch for SANS are not selling as well as management expected. New management has been installed but it may take two or more quarters to fix their inventory oversupply. Well, ZOOX has not been doing very good since we recommended it a few months ago. We would average into more of ZOOX and hold for the long-term. ZOOX may be dead money for the next two-three quarters. News for ZOOX this week: No new news for ZOOX. Only buy this stock if you can afford to lose your entire investment in ZOOX.ZOOX
Over the next few weeks we will talk about the stocks in our “A” Portfolio. We added more IMNX ($16.61) to our “A” Portfolio because they still will sell all the Enbrel they can produce and have a waiting list for Enbrel. IMNX News for IMNX this week: No new news for IMNX.
Corvis Corporation CORV ($8.01) News for CORV: No new news for CORV. CORV
Sycamore Networks (SCMR) ($11.11) News for SCMR: No new news for SCMR. SCMR
Ceragon Networks Ltd. (CRNT $3.44) News for CRNT: No new news for CRNT. CRNT
Capstone Turbine Corp. CPST News for CPST: No new news for CPST. CPST
CORR ($32.97) News from CORR: No new news for CORR. CORR
Three recent additions to the “A” Portfolio are being reported on for this Newsletter.
EMBT ($34.40): Embarcadero is a provider of software products that enable organizations to build and manage e-business applications and their underlying databases, allowing for the enhancing of databases in response to evolving business requirements. For the FY ended 12/31/00, revenues totaled $40.9M, up from $18.9M. Net loss applic. to Common totaled $9M vs. an income of $2.2M. Results reflect increased licensing revenues, offset by increased non-cash costs. EMBT
PALM ($8.27) News for PALM: No new news for PALM. PALM
CMRC: News for CMRC: No new news for CMRC. CMRC
New stocks for this newsletter are: HAND, CHIR, and MLNM.
HAND ($12.09) Handspring, Inc. is a provider of the Visor handheld computer, a personal organizer that is enhanced by an open expansion slot, allowing for the addition of modules such as books and games, MP3 players and digital cameras, and communications applications such as modems and pagers. For the 9 months ended 3/31/01, revenue totaled $310M, up from $50.1M. Net loss rose 44% to $58.8M. Results reflect higher Visor sales, offset by increased personnel expenses. HAND
CHIR ($47.19) Chiron Corp. is a biotechnology company that is developing products for preventing and treating cancer, infectious diseases and cardiovascular disease. For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, total revenues rose 20% to $259.6M. Net income from continuing operations rose 12% to $44.7M. Revenues reflect an increase in royalty and license fees and higher net product sales. Earnings were partially offset by increased research and development expenses. CHIR
MLNM ($37.05) MLNM is engaged in the commercial application of genetics, genomics & bioinformatics to discover and develop a broad range of novel therapeutic and diagnostic products. For the 3 months ended 3/31/01, revenues increased 7% to $50.4M. Net loss before accounting change increased 62% to $53.1M. Revenues reflect increased amounts earned under strategic alliances. Net loss reflects increased R&D expenses due to higher personnel and facilities expenses. MLNM
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 20% is used where appropriate.Income and Bonds
We recommend buying utilities based in Florida and not any utilities based in California. The reason is California based utilities do not produce enough of their own power and have to go onto the open market to buy power during peak usage. California utilities are having trouble and two of them Edison Intl. (EIX) and P G & E Corp. (PCG) are having problems so stay away from them for now. PCG has declared bankruptcy last week and Edison Intl. (EIX) has said they will not declare bankruptcy for now. We would stay away from any power generators that supply power to any California utilities at this time. For a person needing some income be sure to look into electric utilities for some bargain buying opportunities to take advantage of the high dividend paying utilities. We would buy 5-year and 10-year treasuries for income and some appreciation if interest rates were lowered more this year. We recommend 3-6 months Treasuries because they are currently yielding 4.0%. CEI yield has gone down to 9.8% but it is still a buy for its yield and our target is $35. We also like these two reits: CRE yielding 6.5% CarrAmerica Realty is a REIT that focuses primarily on the acquisition, development, ownership and operation of office properties in suburban growth markets in the U.S. Forthe FY ended 12/31/00, revenues rose 8% to $558M. Net income from continuing operation fell 3% to $147.2M. Revenues reflect the development of properties being placed in service and higher occupany rate for store properties. Earnings were offset by a lower gain on the sale of assets. CRE and SPG yielding 7.81% Simon Property Group, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed REIT company, primarily engaged in the expansion & development of real estate properties, primarily malls and shopping centers. For the fiscal year ended 12/31/00, revenues rose 7% to $2.02B. Net income before extra item & acct. change, applic. to Common and limited partners rose 14% to $347.4M. Revenues reflect the CPI merger. Net income reflects gains vs. losses on RE sales. SPG
We have another energy stock we like that has some risk but not as much risk as some of the other energy stocks out in the market. The stock is Entergy (ETR). We added ETR to the “A” Portfolio at $38.50 on April 16th, 2001. News on ETR: No new news on ETR. ETR
Stocks for 2001
The new stocks we have added to our charts for 2001 are: INSP; IMNX; ICOS; TQNT; TGEN; SBUX; RSTA; CRXA; COST; WM; ISLD; MCOM; CHKP; EMLX; ITWO; MANU; JNPR; MUSE; VRTS; QLGC; VRTY; ACRT; AREM; CHCS; INRS; PWER; PDII; SNWL; CHEZ; KO; CORV; GPS; GSPN; MDT; MRCY; AMCC; VTSS; XLNX; BKE; MYGN; CHIR; APC; DVN; JNY; MCLD; NBR; PTEN; QQQ; and TXN. We dropped the following stocks: T; EWEB; ROWE; SGAI; PCOR; PCNTF; ICY; AND LU. You will notice there we be more sections in the charts section of the website. We still will have sections called 12 month, Like, and Tracking. With new sections for Beaten up stocks from 2000, an ADV section for stocks new to our Newsletter, and a section called Dogs of the Dow. Dogs of the Dow are five stocks chosen from the Dow Jones Average of 30 stocks that has shown to beat the market over the past few years.
Some the company’s reports written about Stocks 2001 in the newsletter are here Stock Picks 2001
With the Market being so volatile, a trader should have some close mental stops in the stocks they buy. We suggest a mental stop of 30% is used where appropriate.
Readers will notice all our stocks we follow are on a separate page and we will list prices to purchase stocks at and a target price that we feel the stocks have of reaching in 12 months.